What the 2022 early vote data say — and don’t — for Democrats’ prospects – The Washington Post

    A consequence of that is that Republicans will increasingly distrust those methods of voting and forgo them. They might still feel comfortable showing up to vote early in person, in states where that’s a robust option. But a majority of early voting takes place through the mail, and voters who previously might have opted for these methods might be waiting to show up in person on Election Day instead. That’s not great for Republicans — it’s nice to bank votes early, since you never know what life will bring you on Election Day — but it’s also quite possible the vote on Tuesday could be significantly better for the GOP than it was in 2018.

    We also might be seeing disparate shifts depending on where the elections are being held. The U.S. Elections Project’s Michael McDonald has said he sees early turnout rising particularly in states with very competitive races. That could hearten Democrats, but it might be a problem when it comes to House races held in states like California, with no big-ticket race to drive Democratic turnout.

    There are a lot of poll scolds and political-analysis purists who argue against reading virtually anything into these early-vote numbers. I’m not one of them. I think, just like with polling, you can look at these data and learn things while acknowledging the context and caveats, and without drawing hard-and-fast conclusions about what will happen. Getting early votes from your fellow partisans and in key demographics is like putting votes in the bank, and it’s better to have them than not — as Arizona Republicans in particular appear to be implicitly acknowledging.

    This content was originally published here.

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